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AHT: 12CSV

07 Sept 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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16.7%
Newport County
20.9%
Draw
62.4%
Port Vale

Expected Goals (xG)

0.85

Newport County

vs
1.89

Port Vale

Markets

BTTS48.2%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.551.7%
Over 3.529.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
12.6%
0-2
11.5%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-3
7.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
4.4%
2-2
4.2%
0-4
3.4%
1-4
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).