Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.4%
Newcastle
31.6%
Draw
22.0%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Newcastle
vs
0.85
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS44.2%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.537.6%
Over 3.518.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
12.9%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.1%
3-1
3.8%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).