Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.1%
Leeds
20.9%
Draw
9.0%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.98
Leeds
vs
0.57
Stoke
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.2%
1-0
14.6%
3-0
10.1%
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
5.0%
0-1
3.7%
4-1
2.9%
1-2
2.5%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).