Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.3%
Nacional
23.0%
Draw
56.6%
Sp Braga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.90
Nacional
vs
1.69
Sp Braga
Markets
BTTS47.8%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.526.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.2%
1-1
10.9%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
9.6%
1-0
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
5.4%
2-1
5.1%
2-2
4.3%
2-0
3.0%
0-4
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).