Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.5%
Sunderland
30.2%
Draw
19.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Sunderland
vs
0.73
Luton
Markets
BTTS39.6%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.562.7%
Over 2.534.7%
Over 3.515.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
13.4%
2-0
11.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
3-0
5.1%
1-2
4.5%
3-1
3.8%
0-2
3.3%
2-2
3.1%
4-0
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).