Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.6%
Spal
33.0%
Draw
21.4%
Salernitana
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Spal
vs
0.73
Salernitana
Markets
BTTS37.1%
Over 0.584.0%
Over 1.558.2%
Over 2.530.0%
Over 3.512.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.3%
0-0
16.0%
1-1
14.0%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.6%
3-0
4.1%
0-2
3.9%
3-1
3.0%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).