Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.4%
Chaves
30.0%
Draw
37.7%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Chaves
vs
1.03
Farense
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.557.8%
Over 2.531.3%
Over 3.513.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.1%
1-0
13.7%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
12.9%
0-2
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
3.2%
0-3
2.6%
1-3
2.4%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).