Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.5%
Newcastle
28.7%
Draw
30.8%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Newcastle
vs
1.27
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS57.3%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.552.0%
Over 3.529.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.4%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).