Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.3%
Estrela
14.9%
Draw
76.7%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.63
Estrela
vs
2.38
Benfica
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.558.1%
Over 3.535.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.9%
0-1
12.0%
0-3
11.1%
1-2
8.8%
1-1
7.1%
1-3
7.0%
0-4
6.6%
0-0
4.6%
1-4
4.2%
1-0
3.4%
0-5
3.1%
2-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).