Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.2%
St Pauli
27.0%
Draw
33.8%
Holstein Kiel
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
St Pauli
vs
1.34
Holstein Kiel
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
8.0%
0-1
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
0-2
5.5%
3-1
4.2%
1-3
3.6%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).