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DHT: 10CSV

02 Apr 2018

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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21.0%
Crawley Town
22.0%
Draw
57.0%
Swindon

Expected Goals (xG)

0.99

Crawley Town

vs
1.81

Swindon

Markets

BTTS52.1%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.576.4%
Over 2.553.0%
Over 3.530.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
11.5%
1-1
10.4%
0-2
9.9%
1-2
9.9%
1-0
6.5%
0-3
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.6%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
4.9%
2-0
3.0%
2-3
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).