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DHT: 11

30 Aug 2025 · 14:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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46.5%
Manchester City
28.1%
Draw
25.5%
Chasetown

Expected Goals (xG)

1.27

Manchester City

vs
0.86

Chasetown

Markets

BTTS40.9%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.562.3%
Over 2.535.7%
Over 3.516.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.6%
1-1
12.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
10.6%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.1%
2-2
3.5%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
1.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).