Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.5%
Bury
23.4%
Draw
43.2%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Bury
vs
1.62
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS60.1%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.558.1%
Over 3.535.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.8%
0-0
4.5%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).