Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.7%
Plymouth
24.4%
Draw
46.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Plymouth
vs
1.44
Derby
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.545.4%
Over 3.524.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.9%
1-1
11.5%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
9.0%
0-2
8.5%
0-0
7.2%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
4.8%
2-0
4.6%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
4.1%
3-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).