Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.8%
Watford
26.9%
Draw
42.3%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Watford
vs
1.54
Southampton
Markets
BTTS57.8%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.553.7%
Over 3.531.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.6%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).