Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.3%
Notts County
20.7%
Draw
16.1%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.92
Notts County
vs
0.84
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.552.0%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.6%
2-0
11.7%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
4.1%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).