Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.5%
Monza
27.2%
Draw
13.3%
Ascoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Monza
vs
0.62
Ascoli
Markets
BTTS37.5%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.565.3%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.6%
2-0
13.9%
0-0
12.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.5%
3-0
7.3%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
3.3%
4-0
2.9%
2-2
2.6%
0-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).