Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.4%
Spezia
23.2%
Draw
31.4%
Crotone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.71
Spezia
vs
1.38
Crotone
Markets
BTTS61.2%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.559.8%
Over 3.537.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.6%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.2%
0-0
4.3%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).