Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.8%
Basel
30.7%
Draw
27.6%
Lugano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Basel
vs
1.13
Lugano
Markets
BTTS53.8%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.547.3%
Over 3.525.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.7%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.1%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).