Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.6%
Estrela
24.4%
Draw
24.0%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Estrela
vs
0.97
Chaves
Markets
BTTS48.4%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.571.3%
Over 2.546.3%
Over 3.524.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.0%
1-1
11.5%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.9%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).