Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.0%
Manchester City
20.4%
Draw
19.6%
Hertford Town
Expected Goals (xG)
2.04
Manchester City
vs
1.07
Hertford Town
Markets
BTTS57.0%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.560.2%
Over 3.537.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.4%
1-0
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
5.2%
0-1
5.1%
0-0
4.1%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).