Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.6%
Casa Pia
21.7%
Draw
29.7%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Casa Pia
vs
1.40
Arouca
Markets
BTTS63.2%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.563.2%
Over 3.541.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
4.0%
0-2
3.8%
0-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).