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03 Dec 2024 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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30.6%
Walsall
26.7%
Draw
42.7%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

1.05

Walsall

vs
1.29

Notts County

Markets

BTTS46.5%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.567.2%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.520.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
13.0%
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
4.4%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).