Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.2%
Villarreal B
26.9%
Draw
35.9%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Villarreal B
vs
1.23
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS50.4%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.545.1%
Over 3.523.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.2%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).