Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.4%
Derby
27.9%
Draw
21.7%
Portsmouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Derby
vs
0.92
Portsmouth
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.2%
2-0
10.1%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.1%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).