Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.9%
Aston Villa
28.8%
Draw
40.4%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Aston Villa
vs
1.47
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS57.0%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.529.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.6%
2-0
5.2%
1-3
4.4%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).