Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.8%
Carlisle
26.8%
Draw
23.3%
Harrogate
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Carlisle
vs
0.83
Harrogate
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.563.9%
Over 2.537.5%
Over 3.517.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.7%
1-1
12.1%
0-0
10.7%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).