Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.8%
Lecce
29.4%
Draw
15.8%
Ascoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Lecce
vs
0.65
Ascoli
Markets
BTTS37.7%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.562.9%
Over 2.534.7%
Over 3.515.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.6%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
12.7%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.0%
1-2
3.8%
2-2
2.7%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).