Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.9%
Lugo
20.7%
Draw
65.5%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
0.76
Lugo
vs
1.95
Santander
Markets
BTTS45.5%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.1%
0-2
12.7%
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
8.2%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.2%
1-0
5.2%
0-4
4.0%
2-1
3.7%
2-2
3.6%
1-4
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).