Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.6%
Elche
26.2%
Draw
23.2%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Elche
vs
0.90
Malaga
Markets
BTTS45.6%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
1-1
12.2%
2-0
10.1%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.1%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).