Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.1%
Manchester City
25.4%
Draw
14.5%
Nottingham Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Manchester City
vs
0.80
Nottingham Forest
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.1%
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.8%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).