Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.8%
Brighton
18.6%
Draw
13.6%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.61
Brighton
vs
1.14
Luton
Markets
BTTS64.1%
Over 0.596.7%
Over 1.589.8%
Over 2.572.3%
Over 3.551.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.0%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.9%
3-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
4-1
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.5%
4-0
4.5%
1-2
4.0%
0-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).