Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.3%
Reading
20.0%
Draw
19.7%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.94
Reading
vs
0.99
Burton
Markets
BTTS53.0%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.556.1%
Over 3.533.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.4%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.4%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
0-0
4.5%
3-2
3.2%
4-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).