Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.2%
Aston Villa
27.9%
Draw
33.9%
Liverpool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Aston Villa
vs
1.41
Liverpool
Markets
BTTS60.3%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.555.7%
Over 3.533.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.6%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
6.1%
0-2
5.4%
3-1
4.3%
1-3
3.8%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).