Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.7%
Derby
29.8%
Draw
26.4%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Derby
vs
0.96
Stoke
Markets
BTTS46.2%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.567.4%
Over 2.539.9%
Over 3.519.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.5%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
8.9%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
3.9%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).