Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.0%
Reading
24.8%
Draw
44.2%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Reading
vs
1.37
Derby
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.7%
1-1
11.7%
1-0
10.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
8.0%
0-0
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.1%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.7%
3-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).