Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.5%
Almeria
18.6%
Draw
15.9%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Almeria
vs
1.03
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS57.7%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.584.2%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.542.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.5%
1-1
8.5%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.2%
2-2
5.0%
1-2
4.4%
4-1
4.2%
4-0
4.1%
3-2
3.8%
0-1
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).