Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.5%
Burton
21.1%
Draw
37.5%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Burton
vs
1.64
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS65.7%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.584.3%
Over 2.565.7%
Over 3.543.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
0-1
6.4%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
4.4%
3-2
4.0%
2-3
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).