Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.4%
Santander
14.5%
Draw
7.1%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.46
Santander
vs
0.60
Lugo
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.580.9%
Over 2.559.1%
Over 3.536.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.2%
3-0
11.6%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
8.5%
4-0
7.2%
3-1
7.0%
1-1
6.8%
0-0
4.6%
4-1
4.3%
5-0
3.5%
0-1
2.9%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).