Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.9%
Carlisle
24.6%
Draw
34.4%
Hartlepool
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Carlisle
vs
1.28
Hartlepool
Markets
BTTS54.4%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
1-0
10.0%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
3-1
4.1%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).