Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.7%
Millwall
28.6%
Draw
27.7%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Millwall
vs
1.06
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).