Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.6%
Estoril
15.3%
Draw
17.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.94
Estoril
vs
1.48
Arouca
Markets
BTTS72.9%
Over 0.599.0%
Over 1.593.3%
Over 2.581.7%
Over 3.564.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
7.7%
3-1
7.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-2
5.6%
4-1
5.6%
2-0
5.2%
3-0
5.1%
1-1
5.0%
4-2
4.1%
1-2
3.9%
1-0
3.8%
4-0
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).