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23 Nov 2021 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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39.3%
Aldershot
23.3%
Draw
37.4%
Torquay

Expected Goals (xG)

1.84

Aldershot

vs
1.79

Torquay

Markets

BTTS70.8%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.588.4%
Over 2.570.2%
Over 3.549.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
9.5%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
4.9%
1-3
4.7%
2-0
4.5%
3-2
4.4%
2-3
4.3%
0-2
4.3%
1-0
4.2%
0-1
4.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).