Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Derby
28.6%
Draw
20.3%
Oxford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Derby
vs
0.82
Oxford
Markets
BTTS43.6%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.539.4%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.2%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
11.3%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.6%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
5.0%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
3.6%
0-2
3.5%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).