Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.8%
Vallecano
25.0%
Draw
22.3%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Vallecano
vs
0.99
Almeria
Markets
BTTS51.0%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
7.4%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.3%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).