Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.6%
Nacional
27.3%
Draw
44.1%
Gil Vicente
Expected Goals (xG)
0.96
Nacional
vs
1.27
Gil Vicente
Markets
BTTS43.8%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.564.7%
Over 2.538.5%
Over 3.518.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.3%
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.2%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.9%
2-2
4.0%
0-3
3.7%
1-3
3.5%
3-1
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).