Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.9%
Derby
28.9%
Draw
28.2%
Swansea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Derby
vs
1.08
Swansea
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.571.8%
Over 2.545.0%
Over 3.523.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).