Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.1%
Everton
32.9%
Draw
30.0%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Everton
vs
1.02
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS45.9%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.537.3%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
15.2%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.0%
3-1
3.0%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).