Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.7%
Alaves
20.4%
Draw
9.9%
Valladolid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.93
Alaves
vs
0.57
Valladolid
Markets
BTTS37.3%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.571.4%
Over 2.545.6%
Over 3.524.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.7%
2-0
15.3%
3-0
9.8%
1-1
9.2%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
3-1
5.6%
4-0
4.7%
0-1
4.5%
4-1
2.7%
1-2
2.6%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).