Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.3%
Brescia
28.8%
Draw
30.9%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Brescia
vs
0.99
Spal
Markets
BTTS43.2%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.563.4%
Over 2.536.8%
Over 3.517.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
13.1%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
11.3%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.1%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).